When the injuries began to take their toll on the San Jose Sharks forward lines to start the season, the team had a decision to make. It could rush young prospects who clearly were not prepared to make the jump to the NHL, or it could add veterans looking for another shot. Unlike seasons past, the Sharks opted to go the veteran approach. What resulted was a second shot for Justin Bailey. On Nov. 27, 2023, the forward signed a two-way deal with the Sharks and donned that teal jersey for the first time.
Bailey’s 2023-24 production
Since there was no expectation of Bailey to start the season, his production for the Sharks was a happy surprise for fans.
| Games Played | G | A | Pts | +/- | TOI/G |
| 59 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -15 | 11:16 |
Bailey played 59 games for San Jose this season, scoring a career-high five goals and registering a career-high 14 points. He was also a part of a fourth line that was often sent over the boards to settle things down.
Bailey served as San Jose’s most reliable forward
Bailey’s ability to play steady defense allowed him to easily transition into offense, leading to scoring opportunities. This was one of the reasons why he was one of the Sharks’ most effective forwards this season.
Looking at Evolving-Hockey’s goals above replacement (GAR) chart, you can see that Bailey was the best forward on the ice for the Sharks this season.
Much of this has to do with Bailey’s ability to stay responsible in his own end. Notice that Ryan Carpenter, another responsible forward in the Sharks’ lineup, was also among the better Sharks forwards this season. The difference between Carpenter and Bailey was finishing ability.
Bailey had the uncanny ability to break away from the pack, using his big body, his speed and his skilled hands to score goals and create scoring opportunities. However, unlike younger, rawer forwards with this skill set, Bailey understood that responsibility with the puck was the most important piece of playing in the NHL.
Bailey took just three penalties this season, but he drew 12, according to Natural Stat Trick. What’s more, he had twice as many takeaways (20) as giveaways (10). He delivered hits (73) and was not afraid to take a hit (40) to make a play.
Speed kills
Bailey also figured out how to use one of his biggest assets to his advantage. NHL Edge tracks players on a variety of factors, including shot speed, skating speed and more. Bailey’s top skating speed this season according to NHL Edge was 23.53 miles per hour. That’s in the 96th percentile among NHL forwards.
What’s more, NHL Edge says he had 144 speed bursts over 20 miles per hour this season, in the 85th percentile of NHL forwards. Bailey also had 22 speed bursts over 22 miles per hour, in the 97th percentile of NHL forwards.
Bailey was among the fastest forwards in the league this season and considering his limited ice time, his ability to still rank for speed bursts over 20 miles per hour and 22 miles per hour is impressive. He used that speed to his advantage on more than one occasion.
Take, for instance, this goal against the Los Angeles Kings on Jan. 22.
San Jose goal!
— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) January 23, 2024
Scored by Justin Bailey with 13:43 remaining in the 3rd period.
Assisted by Ryan Carpenter.
Los Angeles: 2
San Jose: 3#SJSvsLAK #GoKingsGo #SJSharks pic.twitter.com/RFXBWUUITv
Notice how the puck starts in the neutral zone. Once Bailey recognizes that Carpenter has the puck, he is able to use his speed to split the defense. He takes off and there’s no chance for the Kings’ defensemen to catch him.
Bailey’s future with the Sharks
Bailey is an unrestricted free agent as of July 1. While he’s likely not on the lists for a lot of teams on day one of free agency, he could sign a day or two after the free agency window opens. If he doesn’t get a contract, it’s very possible that he could receive more than one invitation to another team’s training camp as a tryout. His speed alone is an attractive feature, and he proved this past season that he’s a reliable bottom-six forward.
That said, the Sharks can prevent that from happening by offering Bailey a contract now. Bailey won’t receive much, but a one-way deal could offer young forwards like Will Smith and the potential number one overall draft pick a complimentary player with speed. It could boost Bailey’s numbers this season and make him an ideal trade candidate at the deadline.
It’s something that General Manager Mike Grier and his staff should consider.
Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out the player reviews for the San Jose Sharks. We realize there were a lot of guys rotating into and out of the lineup and some of the key depth players were traded. As a result, Fear the Fin plans to focus on the players who are 1) still with the Sharks and 2) played 20 or more games for San Jose this season.
