Get ready Sharks fans. Today we find out if the pain and suffering of the past several months was worth it all in the end. The Sharks have finished last in the league, have been the butt of league jokes all season and made fans miserable with the on ice product.
However, all of that will be bearable if we find out that the Sharks have won the draft lottery.
When is the 2024 NHL draft lottery?
Today. May 7.
More exactly at 3:30 p.m. PT/6:30 p.m. ET. You can see it on ESPN and ESPN+. If you’re stuck in the office, I’m planning to tweet out the final verdict as quickly as possible. I’m sure other people will too, but if you’re not following @FearTheFin on Twitter you should be.
What are the San Jose Sharks odds of winning the draft lottery?
Based on how the lottery is set up. 18.5% of the numbers in the lottery represent the Sharks. However, because a team can only move up ten spots in the lottery, the odds of teams 12 through 16 “winning” also go to the Sharks. In other words, if 14th overall Pittsburgh won the lottery, the Sharks would receive the first overall pick and Pittsburgh would move up ten spots to secure the fourth overall pick.
Because of the limit on how far teams can move up in the draft, the true odds of the Sharks winning the first overall pick are 25.5%.
What are the San Jose Sharks odds of “winning” the second overall pick?
If the Sharks miss out on the first overall pick, there’s a second draft to determine who picks second. In other words, San Jose doesn’t just drop down to second, the team has to luck into it.
The odds of San Jose picking second overall, according to Tankathon are 18.8%.
While the Sharks have the best odds out of all of the teams to claim the first or second pick in the NHL draft, as we’ve seen in the past (i.e., the Anaheim Ducks last season), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that San Jose falls all the way down to third.
What’s, statistically, the most likely outcome for the Sharks?
And third place is, statistically, the most likely outcome for the Sharks. After all, the idea of a lottery is for participants to dream big. To believe that anyone can win. The odds makers have tried to skew it as much as possible so that anyone can win.
That’s why the Sharks have a 55.7% chance of picking third overall. Run the simulation 100 times and more than half of those times, the Sharks will fall all the way to third.
Sigh.
Why is this lottery important for Sharks fans past the first pick?
While the first overall pick is a big deal for the Sharks and Sharks’ fans, there’s more skin in the game this season. That’s because as it stands now, San Jose owns the Pittsburgh Penguins’ first-round pick (top ten protected).
Currently, the Penguins are slated to pick 14th overall and there’s a 94.7% chance that’s how things will end up.
However, for reasons that we’ll explain in a moment, San Jose should still keep an eye on that Pittsburgh pick.
Best possible outcomes for the Sharks
That’s because the best possible outcome for the Sharks is that Pittsburgh wins.
If the Penguins win, the Sharks are locked into the first overall spot. The Penguins’ pick jumps to fourth overall and now the Penguins have to decide if the team keeps the fourth overall pick this season and gifts San Jose an unprotected first round pick next season or if it gives up the fourth overall pick just to keep next season’s first round pick. The Penguins winning is the best opportunity San Jose has at a second top ten pick.
The second best outcome is that the Sharks win the lottery and the Penguins win the second lottery, once again creating a choice for Kyle Dubas about whether to keep a top ten pick this season and give the Sharks and unprotected pick next season or give up this season’s pick to protect next year’s.
Conclusion
Winning the first overall pick today would, obviously, kickstart this rebuild into high gear. Macklin Celebrini is the uncontested number one pick in the draft and his skill level is above and beyond any of the other prospects…to date.
What’s more, it’s a great coming home story that the league should get behind. Junior Shark drafted by the club where he played junior hockey. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green could be up there with Mike Grier handing Celebrini his draft pick jersey. Toss in Jumbo Joe to boot. Might make the Sports Center’s Top 10.
Think of the cross over marketing opportunities NHL. This is how you grow a sport.
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