The San Jose Sharks are keeping pick number one, so don’t expect some crazy ideas in this article. We’re not looking to squander the best luck the Sharks have had in its 30-plus-year draft history. No, we’re talking about pick number 14. The one that used to belong to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
In a previous post, we explored the idea of moving up in the draft. Today, we look at some of the reasons the Sharks might consider moving down in the draft.
What’s the benefit of trading down?
The Sharks proved there is risk and reward when it comes to trading down in a draft. In 2022, the team traded pick 11 to the then-Arizona Coyotes for picks 27, 34 and 45. The Coyotes selected Conor Geekie, who scored 64 points in 55 games in the WHL this past season. The Sharks selected Filip Bystedt, Cameron Lund and Mattias Havelid. The reward was three pieces that could factor into the youth movement for the Sharks, though they might be a little slower to make their way to the NHL than Geekie.
However, the Sharks missed out on a lot too. Geekie for one. But also Denton Mateychuk, who the Columbus Blue Jackets took at 12, Rutger McGroarty, who Winnipeg took at 14, Noah Ostlund, who the Buffalo Sabres selected at 16 and Owen Pickering, who the Pittsburgh Penguins took at 23.
The point is that the Sharks also missed out on key talent, which is one of the major risks of moving down in a draft. However, if San Jose finds a trade partner that allows the team to drop just a few spots into the late teens, the Sharks might find that sweet spot where it can still get the player it wants with the pick while adding a second-round pick to the mix as well.
Given the potential depth of this year’s draft, that’s not a bad plan. With that in mind, here are some of the scenarios where trading down might be a good plan for San Jose.
Plenty of defense to go around
One of the biggest attributes of this draft class is its loaded with high-end defensive talent. There are players like Artyom Levshunov, Carter Yakemchuk, Anton Silayev, Zeev Buium and Sam Dickinson all listed in the top ten of most mock drafts. That’s five of the ten slots taken up.
But even after that, there are other defensemen like Stian Solberg, Adam Jiricek and Zayne Parekh who aren’t in the top ten but are still considered potential top-four NHL defensemen.
There are a lot of options and any one of them could turn into what the Sharks are looking for. If two or three of the Sharks’ targets are all available at 14 and the team doesn’t have a preference for one over the other, trading back may be a good choice.
Conversely, if all the top tier defensemen the Sharks are considering are off the table, there’s no reason to waste a 14 pick on a player that can just as easily be taken at 20.
Who’s available in the late teens, early 20s?
Most of the draft boards are now out, looking at who might be available in the late teens or early 20s. There are plenty of names in this group that the Sharks would be happy to add to the roster, especially if it meant adding a mid- to high-second-round pick as well.
The Athletic’s Corey Pronman issued a complete seven-round mock draft. It has players like Jiricek, Cole Eiserman and Trevor Connelly left in the late teens to early 20s. While I don’t think the Sharks are interested in Connelly given some personal issues that have teams balking, he’s a talented forward that the Sharks could pick up later when the talent to draft position ratio becomes too big to ignore.
Defensemen EJ Emery and Charlie Elick rank 24 and 25 on FloHockey Chris Peters’ mock draft. Both are shutdown defensemen who could benefit the Sharks on the blueline. They don’t have the offensive firepower of some of the defensemen higher on the draft boards, but they’re strong defensive players who could serve well on a shutdown pairing.
If all the top-tier defensemen are taken, trading down to take one of these players may be the Sharks’ best play.
Best of the best or best of the rest
But perhaps the most important insight into whether the Sharks trade down on draft day is what management’s mindset is. I’m a firm believer that the Sharks need a defenseman. The prospect pool is shallow at best. If that’s management’s opinion, too, then the Sharks might trade down simply because the team wants to draft the best defenseman at the right price. There’s no need to draft a player at 14 when he’s better suited to go at 25 in a draft. Some would say that’s a waste of draft capital.
However, if management’s mindset is to draft the best player available at the time, regardless of the position, then it’s hard to see the team trading down. This is the take the “best of the best” mindset. In an instance like this, San Jose would draft the best player and then see what happens. If it’s a forward, the Sharks could later package that prospect in a deal for a high-end defensive talent if and when the time comes.
Conclusion
Watching how draft day plays out is one of the most intriguing things about pick 14. There are so many variables happening before the pick that the Sharks might be able to snag a player that’s fallen a bit farther down the board than he should have, or San Jose could trade back to use its draft capital elsewhere.
If the Sharks do decide to trade down on draft day, don’t expect that decision to come until mid-draft or maybe just before the pick is supposed to be made. There’s no reason to make that decision too early.
